Pakistan vs Bangladesh Prediction: Pakistan has flat pitches

Pakistan and Bangladesh are going head to head in the 1st Match of the Test Series at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on 21 Aug 2024. The batters will party hard at flat pitches in Pakistan. Who will win this game of cricket?

Pakistan has chosen its eleven for the upcoming Test Match and is going to field an all-pace bowling attack. Past record of the pitch at Rawalpindi shows that it is a fast bowlers' paradise, though it has apparently slowed down a bit in recent years. The strategy involving four pace-bowlers with Salman Ali Agha as the lead spinner can be termed a rather bold move.

The bowling lineup would consist of Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Mohammad Ali, and Khurram Shahzad—fine individuals who have done well in home conditions but may not make a big difference on a flat pitch. On that note, Naseem Shah can cause quite some problem with his reverse swing to Bangladesh and is picked as the top bowler for Pakistan.

As far as batting is concerned, Abdullah Shafique and Saim Ayub will continue the opening tasks, which is a relatively new association. In the wings lurks Muhammad Hurraira, so both will be under pressure for performance. Sahn Masood, Babar Azam, and Saud Shakeel will complete the top-6, with Mohammad Rizwan and Salman Ali Agha fleshing out the lineup. This batting strength should be good enough to win the match or at least draw it.

Shan Masood (c), Saud Shakeel (vc), Abdullah Shafique, Babar Azam, Khurram Shehzad, Mohammad Ali, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Naseem Shah, Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha, Shaheen Shah Afridi.

Bangladesh goes into this contest with a lot of apprehensions. The poor record against Pakistan, combined with the recent losing streak in Tests and general struggles in the format, is not the best preparation. To further complicate matters, injury concerns will see Mahmmudul Hasan Joy sit out of the first Test, probably to be replaced by Shadman Islam. Zakir Hasan's form has not been up to the mark either, adding to the problems in batting. The team heavily relies on Mushfiqur Rahim, Litton Das, and Najmul Hossain Shanto for runs, with Shakib Al Hasan's batting prowess on the decline. Mominul Haque's form is a cause for worry, while Mehidy Hasan Miraz stands out as the most consistent bowler who often contributes with the bat too. While there are options available in the bowling department, including Taskin Ahmed and Shoriful Islam, it remains to be seen whether Bangladesh sticks with its spin-heavy strategy or goes for a pace-heavy attack like Pakistan did.

Zakir Hasan, Shadman Islam, Najmul Hossain Shanto, Mominul Haque, Shakib Al Hasan, Mushfiqur Rahim, Litton Das, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Shoriful Islam, Nahid Rana, Syed Khaled Ahmed

The team that wins the toss will have no qualms about batting first. There could be a bit of help for the bowlers in the first session of the Test match, but it happens nearly everywhere. The pitch at Rawalpindi is usually very accommodating to the batsmen as the game goes on. This match was shifted at the last minute from Karachi to Rawalpindi, leaving little chance that the curators can effect any major changes in the pitch. The average first innings score at this venue comes out to be around 338, and teams usually target a minimum of 350. 

The betting odds for this match are pretty interesting, with Pakistan coming out as a strong favorite due to two simple reasons: firstly, because it is a home game, and secondly due to its historical advantage over Bangladesh. This, however, may be a case of the betting markets overvaluing Pakistan. Much improved as a team and with the potential to make a fist of it, especially on a flat Rawalpindi pitch where taking 20 wickets could prove difficult, is Bangladesh. With Rawalpindi's historical tendency to be a venue producing draws, betting on a draw may be prudent; there's value in those high odds being offered. About 30% of Tests at Rawalpindi have ended in draws, and this game could be another addition to the list. Bet on a draw for this game.