Senegal vs Gambia Prediction: Senegal won’t flop in their title defense opener

The reigning champions, Senegal, will kick off their title defense against Gambia at the Charles Konan Banny Stadium in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) on Monday. Senegal is participating in their fifth consecutive appearance in the continental competition and has reached the final in the previous editions. On the other hand, The Gambia has qualified for the group stage for the second time in a row after not making an appearance in the first 32 editions of the tournament.

Since Egypt secured their third consecutive title in 2010, no team has been able to defend the AFCON trophy. However, Senegal enters this year's competition as the favorites to break that streak, as indicated by several bookmakers. In the history of the tournament, only three nations have successfully retained the AFCON title: Egypt (1957, 1959; 2006, 2008, 2010), Ghana (1963, 1965), and Cameroon (2000, 2002).

Despite a sluggish start in the 2021 continental competition, including scoring just one goal and playing two goalless draws in the group stages, Senegal shed the label of underachievers by ultimately winning the tournament at the expense of Egypt.

Since then, The Lions of Teranga have demonstrated remarkable progress, boasting a star-studded team featuring players such as Nicolas Jackson, Serge Aurier, Kalidou Koulibaly, and the two-time African Player of the Year, Sadio Mane. Despite significant lineup changes in recent months, Aliou Cisse's side enters the tournament in excellent form, winning six of their last 10 matches in all competitions and losing only once in that period. The last meeting between these two teams was in the African Nations Cup in 2015, with Senegal securing a 1-0 victory, maintaining their unbeaten record against Gambia since 2008.

Gambia is set to begin their tournament as the biggest outsiders and the lowest-ranked team in Group C, currently occupying the 29th position among 53 African footballing nations according to the FIFA World Rankings. Making only their second appearance in the AFCON, the West African side has fond memories of their debut tournament, where they achieved an against-the-odds victory over African powerhouse Tunisia, advancing to the quarter-finals.

However, the Scorpions' form leading up to this competition has been less than impressive, facing setbacks with defeats against Burundi and the Ivory Coast in their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign at the end of last year. Moreover, their journey to the Ivory Coast for this competition was anything but routine, as their flight had to U-turn shortly after departure due to a lack of oxygen in the aircraft, an incident that some players have described as a near-death experience.

Nevertheless, Tom Saintfiet's side is present and ready to embrace the opportunity to be giant killers once again this year. Expecting them to approach this match with no fear and nothing to lose, which could ultimately work in their favor.

The two teams have encountered each other 23 times in various competitions, with their initial competitive match dating back to 1980. The 2021 AFCON champions maintain an undefeated record in this matchup, securing 13 victories and drawing 10 games. Their most recent encounter was in the Preliminary round of the African Nations Championship qualifiers in 2015, where Les Lions de la Teranga emerged victorious with a 4-1 aggregate score.

Gambia has experienced matches with fewer than 2.5 goals in their five AFCON games, scoring four times and conceding thrice. In contrast, Senegal has kept clean sheets in nine of their last 12 AFCON games, scoring in all but one match within that period.

Senegal possible starting lineup:

Mendy; Koulibaly, Niakhate, Jakobs; Gueye, Kouyate, P Sarr, Diatta; I Sarr, Jackson, Mane

Gambia possible starting lineup:

Jobe; Sanneh, Colley, Janko, Mendi; Adams, Marreh, Ngum, Fadera, Barrow; Minteh

The Lions of Teranga are currently on a four-game unbeaten streak across all competitions, securing three wins and maintaining clean sheets in these matches. Against the Gambia, Senegal has sustained an unbeaten record, showcasing dominance with 16 clean sheets in 23 meetings, establishing themselves as strong favorites. Contrastingly, the Scorpions had an impressive debut in the 2021 competition and are aiming for advancement to the knockout round this time as well. However, they have experienced a recent drop in form, being winless in their last three games and suffering two defeats.

Considering Senegal's remarkable record against the Gambia and their superior performance in the AFCON, they are expected to secure a comfortable win, with favorable odds for maintaining a clean sheet.