Olympique Lyon vs Saint-Etienne Prediction: Will Lyon’s Dominance Continue or Can Saint-Etienne Stage a Comeback?

Matchweek 11 in Ligue 1 returns with one of its historic rivalries, pitting Olympique Lyon against Saint-Etienne. Coming into this match, both sides have reasons to be somewhat discontent with their current places in the standings, as Lyon currently sits in 7th with a mixed bag of results-4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses-while Saint-Etienne finds themselves struggling in 16th, reflecting their season of inconsistency. While recent form and positions in the league may favour Lyon, the recent win which Saint-Etienne managed to pull off against Strasbourg could serve as a morale booster, affording them sparks to compete against one of their better-known rivals. This match between the two teams chasing vital points should see intensity, tactical finesse, and strategic battles on the pitch.

Olympique Lyon comes into this derby on the back of drawing 2-2 with Hoffenheim in the Champions League. This game showed that Lyon can be resolute, but also somewhat fragile at the back; their possession was 56%, and they were forced into 9 saves from the goalkeeper, which shows room for improvement in defensive organization. Meanwhile, Saint-Etienne had an important 2-0 victory over Strasbourg and will want to maximize the impact of this victory despite concerns regarding their fragile backline and low possession rate of 35% from their last match, which may indicate they will fail to dominate.

With a five-game unbeaten run in the Ligue 1 derbies against Saint-Etienne, Lyon holds both psychological and tactical upper hands, but the determination of Saint-Etienne and the indifferent form of Lyon may make this a close affair where any single lapse in concentration might seal the deal.

Olympique Lyon: In the hands of coach Pierre Sage, Lyon has adopted a dynamic formation in 3-4-3, affording a good balance between defensive cover and offensive options. In this setup, full-backs are encouraged to push forward, offering width and overloads on the sides. Therefore, Lyon, insisting on possession-based football, is likely to control the tempo of the game and look at the structural openings in Saint-Etienne. However, the Lyon defensive line must be alert throughout the match, as Saint-Etienne will have chances to counterattack with overcommitting. This is where Lyon will find its strengths-dominating possession, stretching play wide, and pressing aggressively to disrupt Saint-Etienne's build-up.

Saint Etienne: Olivier Dall'Oglio's team has always lined up in a more conservative 4-1-4-1, with the clear focus on defensive solidity and counter-attacks. This setup assures that the backline will be solid, well organized, and supported by midfielders. In this match, Saint-Etienne is most likely to soak the pressure and try to hit Lyon on the counter using transitional moments to break open any defensive lapses. Dall'Oglio will need his midfielders compact for the duration of the campaign, first and foremost against Lyon to prevent any space between the lines. Saint-Etienne's success could depend on keeping disciplined shape for large parts of the game and taking advantage of opportunities handed by set-pieces, since they are unlikely to dominate possession.

Historically, Lyon are the more successful team, coming out on top 11 times in the last 20 meetings. Saint-Etienne have managed just five victories and four games have ended in draws. Recent trends are no different, with Lyon coming into this match unbeaten in five straight matches against Saint-Etienne. In the 2022 meeting, Lyon managed a slender 1-0 win. It was a testament to the defensive solidity and tactical discipline that has marked most of these derbies. For the most part, Lyon has struck first in their meetings with Saint-Etienne, having opened the scoring in four of the last five meetings, while also opening the scoring on three different occasions in the first half of play.

Playing at home with a recent unbeaten run, Lyon will head into this derby confident. Their attack, though not prolific of late, is able to fashion opportunities through high possession and wide play. But their reliance on a high defensive line has seen them exposed at times, as it was against Hoffenheim, which Saint-Etienne might look to exploit with some rapid counters. The advantage of playing in front of their home crowd and on the back of a good run of late against Saint-Etienne, Lyon will have themselves in a position to dominate the proceedings and gain the lead in the opening exchanges.

While positioned lower in the standings, Saint-Etienne has shown recent resilience and fighting spirit, with a balanced last five games. Their recent 2-0 win should bolster their confidence, but they will need a solid and disciplined defensive performance if they are going to be able to handle the pressure Lyon puts on with their offense. Relying on quick transitions and set pieces, Saint-Etienne is unlikely to break down Lyon if unable to find success on the counter.

• 3 Way Total Under 4 Goals @ 1.859 Odds
• Olympique Lyon Wins & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.89 Odds
• Olympique Lyon Wins 2-0 @ 8.50 Odds