Ituano vs São Paulo prediction: This game is a final for both teams

With several teams already qualified for the quarter-finals, this match is the most interesting of the Paulistão final round. Both teams must win, Ituano to avoid relegation and São Paulo to qualify for the knockout stage. The Tricolor Paulista is first in group D with 19 points, the same as Novorizontino. In third place is São Bernardo, with just one point less, so a draw may not be enough for São Paulo against Ituano.

The Itu Rooster has to win and hope that Guarani doesn't beat RB Bragantino if it wants to stay in the Campeonato Paulista Série A1 next year. The task seems almost impossible, especially as São Paulo is not qualified and needs points. In last year's Paulistão, Ituano reached the semi-finals in a fantastic run, losing 1-0 to Palmeiras and eliminating Corinthians in the quarter-finals. Things haven't gone well this year, and Ituano will probably drop to the Série A2 unless something unexpected happens.

The Tricolor complicated their qualification for the quarter-finals with a four-game winless streak in the Paulistão, which ended with a victory in Round 10 against Inter de Limeira. Thiago Carpini's team did well and narrowly beat Palmeiras in the last round. The classic ended in a 1-1 draw. Repeating a tie with Ituano would be very dangerous, as São Paulo would be at the mercy of their group opponents. Pablo Maia, recently called up to the Brazil national team, cannot play due to a yellow card suspension.

São Paulo is the favorite not only because of the difference in quality between its players and those of Ituano but also because they're more used to dealing with pressure. The home team needs the three points to avoid relegation, but the Tricolor Paulista also must win, which I think will happen. I'm backing São Paulo to win with a total goal score lower than 4.5.