Charlotte FC vs New England Revolution Prediction: A match of few goals

On September 21, 2024, Charlotte FC will play host to the New England Revolution in an MLS Eastern Conference showdown. The club currently sits 7th with a record of 10-8-11 and is trying to solidify a playoff position. Whereas New England sits at the bottom with 15th place on 8W, 4D, and 16L and is desperate to salvage some pride from what has been a difficult season.

The teams are barely in fantastic form, as Charlotte will come into this one with only a single win in their last five and New England winless in four straight outings. This would be a close and tactical match because each side would be desperate to get their season right on track going into the tail end of the campaign.

Charlotte FC enters looking to break a four-game winless streak. Last week they fell to Orlando City 2-0. The team struggled in front of goal, managing just two shots on target and zero big chances. Defensively, Charlotte put up a decent fight in moments and won 60% of its defensive tackles, but ultimately allowed Orlando to score twice due to lapses in concentration. Lack of creativity in attack and the tendency to concede first most of the time have been key issues, and head coach Christian Lattanzio will be eager to address them ahead of this match.

The Charlotte setup has been 4-2-3-1 of late; this gives them a solid base to work with for defending, but at the same time, it makes things tough on the attack. While the setup does allow width via fullbacks and wide midfielders, their crossing efficiency has been spotty-as in the last game, they were only able to do that with 36% success. The heavy reliance on long balls, as high as 40% in their last game, would arguably suggest a lack of buildup through the midfielders, probably because of a lack of creative options or just very poor form from the playmakers.

They will have to find ways of giving their attacking quartet more meaningful involvement, and most importantly, invention in the final third is surely lacking as they failed to create any big chances in their last match. A lack of consistent goal threat is worrying enough on its own, while adding in that they have conceded the opening goal in each of their last couple of matches doesn't help.

Defensively, Charlotte will look to lean on their tackling, of which they were strong in the last match, winning 60% of their challenges. However, their low possession stats of 42% show that they might struggle to control games, and a vulnerability to conceding early could play a major factor in this match.

On the other hand, New England Revolution will be seeking to snap their winless run, that has now extended to four games back. The last time they stepped onto the pitch, they managed to hold CF Montréal to a 2-2 draw at home, having taken the lead twice in the process. New England, with seven shots on target and two big chances created, showed more attacking intent than Charlotte did. But they have been leaky at the back, conceding in each of the last four games. Interim coach Clint Peay will have to make sure the defensive organization is tightened if they are to stand a chance of beating Charlotte away from home.

New England does line up in a 4-2-3-1, similar to Charlotte, but their method tends to involve more direct attacking play. In their last match, they created two big chances and took seven shots on target. The attack has been carried largely by players like Bobby Wood, who continues to find the net, and Esmir Bajraktarevic, who also scored in their last outing.

But the Revolution continue to have their defensive problems, as outlined by their miserable 40% of defensive tackles won and way too many shots allowed on goal. New England's backline looks rather tender while their 48% dueling rate stayed lower than Charlotte's and regularly lost some key physical battles, especially in midfield and defensive areas.

In this game, New England may want to sit a bit deeper, hitting Charlotte on the counter, as indications are that they may not look to build through wide play with their crossing accuracy at just 16% in the last match. This superior possession-56% in their last match-could help them control the tempo of the game against a Charlotte side who struggle for ball retention.

New England has lorded over the head-to-head matches, winning four of five matches that include a hard-fought 1-0 win in their last meeting in April 2024. So far, Charlotte have been unable to shake New England from their back and have constantly conceded first.

With this recent form in mind, Charlotte can be expected to be more cautious regarding the match, with a solid defensive shape, while New England can be expected to adopt more of a counter-attacking approach-with much more confidence in front of goal, but weak at the back. The match will probably be decided on which of those current issues each team can overcome better: Charlotte's lack of attacking creativity or New England's defensive vulnerabilities. A low-scoring, cagey affair seems probable.

Charlotte has conceded first in 6 of their last 8 matches, while New England has opened the scoring in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two sides. Considering Charlotte's slow starts and New England's history in this matchup, the probability of Charlotte falling behind early is very high.

Games involving Charlotte have come with fewer corners, such that 9 out of the last 10 produced less than 10.5 corners. Recently, New England has also been involved in games with fewer opportunities for set pieces.

• Under 10.5 Corners @ 1.60 Odds
• Away to Score First @ 2.65 Odds
• Under 10 Corners @ 1.90 Odds