Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls Prediction: A possible draw?

The match between Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls in Major League Soccer on September 15, 2024, has two Eastern Conference teams in different positions. Chicago Fire sits 4th in the conference, holding onto their playoff ambitions despite a worrying form in recent games. Meanwhile, the New York Red Bulls are 14th and closer to being out of playoff contention than anything else. Both teams really need the points, but for very different reasons. Chicago is trying to halt a slide that is getting very alarming, while New York Red Bulls fight for pride and survival in a season that hasn't gone their way.

Chicago Fire enter with no wins from their last six, drawing once and losing five, also failing to get the better of a recent 2-1 home loss against D.C. United. While Chicago dominated the ball that game with 65% possession, they didn't create too much in terms of goal-scoring opportunism, failing to record any big chances while only producing two shots on target. This attacking inefficiency, coupled with the defensive fragility of having conceded in their last six games, has been their major downfall. They have also been susceptible to conceding goals early, losing the first half in 5 of their last 6 matches.

The Chicago team has played a 5-4-1 in the last couple of matches, which just works to solidify the back and rely on counter-attacks. However, this hasn't meant any defensive stability, given that this team has conceded in the last six games. Many times, the wide structure at the back gets them prey to opponents' attacks, and this is pretty well evidenced by the 41% of long balls played against them. The over-reliance on individual brilliance-most times from Gutman-has made going forward quite inefficient, while the team managed only two shots on target in their last game against DC United.

In this game, manager Frank Klopas can be more attacking-minded, knowing full well that they have to exploit the NY Red Bulls' weaknesses in defense. Key players like Gastón Giménez in midfield will be important in dictating the flow and tearing through the lines of the Red Bulls, while their wing-backs will have to be good at transitioning between attack and defense.

NY Red Bulls are not doing any better either, as they have not won any of their last five outings, drawing 2 and losing 3. They shared spoils at home, 1-1, against Sporting Kansas City in a match they had some possession, but could not close out games to their liking. Julian Hall scored their only goal, but once again, the lack of serious creativity and finishing keeps haunting them, despite creating 3 Big Chances. Like Chicago, New York has also been struggling with goals, more so away from home, and has had less than 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 matches.

The setup that the Red Bulls deploy under Troy Lesesne is a more traditional 4-4-2. While their standing in the league has been poor, the defensive numbers have improved marginally, with three clean sheets in the recent games and under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 5 matches. A concentration on tight defensive structure is reflected well in their 57% Defending Tackles Won stat, but a lagging inability to create chances offensively continues to undermine their chances of winning. Perhaps one of the few positives has been the form of Julian Hall, who remains a key target man up front.

Considering Chicago's propensity to buckle under pressure, the Red Bulls will likely attempt to go high and force mistakes in an effort to take advantage of their weak defensive shape. They will heavily rely on Hall and Elias Manoel for counter-attacks, using the wide areas to stretch the backline.

Historical matches between Chicago Fire and New York Red Bulls have indeed been close, although the latter is a step ahead, having won 8 times against 5 by Chicago, while 7 other matches have resulted in draws.

The last match, played in April 2024 in New York, ended with a goalless draw-a fair indication of how evenly these teams have matched up in recent times.

Both teams have a lot of pressure on them, though for different reasons. Chicago Fire need to win in order to stay in playoff contention, and their home-field advantage will factor into this. However, their mediocre streak might well make them vulnerable should the Red Bulls frustrate them early on. NY Red Bulls have little to lose and might express themselves with more freedom in seeking to disrupt Chicago's fragile defense and pounce on counter-attacks.

Given the poor form of both teams, this game is likely to be cagey with a few goals. The home form of Chicago has been shaky; however, the Red Bulls were even worse away from home, and for that reason, a draw does look most probable. Stats indicate this will be a low-scoring game since both teams struggle to break each other down.

• Under 3 Goals @ 1.61 Odds
• Draw Full Time @ 3.50 Odds
• Correct Score 1-1 @ 7.00 Odds