Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC Prediction: Both teams have flaws

Chicago Fire welcome Toronto FC to Soldier Field on September 29, 2024, in a potentially defining MLS match. With the season almost at its end and playoff spots on the line, neither team enters this match in not-so-formidable style. Chicago Fire sit 14th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses. Toronto FC is somewhat better, in 8th place, with 11 wins, 3 draws, and 17 losses. However, both teams have failed to show consistency this season, and this match presents a chance for much-needed momentum.

This is a big game for either of these teams. Chicago Fire really struggled lately, having won just one of their last five, losing the other four. They lost their last one 2-0 to Montreal, where they failed to make use of possession, creating only two big chances. They are even keener to end the negative streak at home, but their defense has been highly suspect, conceding nine goals in the last five games.

For late, Chicago Fire have used a 3-4-3 formation that gave them great areas in the middle of the park but ceded space at the back. Poor finishing and defensive mistakes undermined their attacking potency, as they gave away early goals in each of their last seven games and lost the opening period. That is reflected in the high goals-conceded tally of 9 in the last five matches for them. Their home form has not been particularly strong this season as they dominate possession but just do not score from those chances that are being created. They hold the ball well, but their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed time and again by teams that play on the counter. They have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of their last nine matches, suggesting that matches involving Chicago often feature open play and defensive lapses. They've also struggled to take control early, conceding the first goal in five of their last six matches.

Given that they are on a poor streak lately, Chicago will try to dominate possession and press high on Toronto, trying to force mistakes and get some defensive solidity back. That has also made them somewhat weak during transitions of defense whenever they deploy three at the back. Chicago could exploit the issues that Toronto have out wide, especially given the wingbacks in the 3-4-3 system. However, the question remains whether Chicago will have the game from the opening stages of the match, as they have been letting in easy and early goals.

Meanwhile, Toronto FC are coming off a 2-0 defeat to Colorado. They sit higher in the league standings, but their form has been similarly uneven: two wins and three losses in their last five. The attack has struggled, creating only one big chance in the last match. Head-to-head, Toronto owns the better record, taking 11 of their last 20 meetings against Chicago. However, the last time they traveled to Soldier Field, they were handed an embarrassing 4-1 defeat this past June 2024.

The 3-5-2 for Toronto FC also tries to overload the midfield to support their forwards. In return, it will make them be a bit vulnerable in the wide areas as they have been conceding goals week in and week out. Toronto FC has allowed four goals in their last five games. Toronto has done reasonably well with two wins and three losses in their last five games. What's more worrying is the fact that they lacked creativity and failed to fashion more than one big chance in their last outing. They have been pretty shaky on their travels this season, finding it hard to produce emphatic attacking performances. Away from home, they often adopt a more defensive approach by giving up the ball possession with counter-attacks or set pieces. They don't have the best goal-scoring record away from home, and registered just one shot on target in their last outing. Toronto has had less than 10.5 corners in nine of their previous matches, indicating that the team's games can be cagey affairs with limited clear-cut chances. They have also been a little bit decent at the back, with a tendency for their matches to have less than 4.5 yellow cards.

Toronto will most likely be more cautious, sticking to compact and defensive-minded play with fast transitions. They will look to soak up some pressure, counter, and hit Chicago quickly by utilizing their midfielders in creating breakaway chances. With a 3-5-2 formation, Toronto might have an edge in the midfield battle; they still have to be much more creative to blast through Chicago's effective defense. They might also tend to capitalize on set-pieces, considering how difficult it is for them to create open-play chances.

Chicago Fire and Toronto FC have played each other a total of 20 times in the MLS, with the historical edge going the way of Toronto. In those 20 meetings, Toronto FC has grasped the win a total of 11 times, while Chicago Fire managed 5 victories with 4 games ending in a draw. While this is an indicator of long-term superiority, recent meetings have somewhat suggested that the Fire is catching up on Toronto in head-to-head confrontations.

Chicago Fire have succeeded in not losing in the last four matches between themselves and Toronto-a big turn around considering Toronto had always come out on top. The streak includes a dominant away win for Chicago 4-1 this June 2024, as they took advantage of the looseness in the Toronto defense.

These are two teams that have been relatively disciplined in their matches with fewer cards shown. In 8 of their last 10 matches, fewer than 4.5 yellow cards have been issued, which insinuates that games might be competitive but rarely overly aggressive.

Even more, corners have also been few in these matches. In 5 out of the last 6 meetings between the two teams, fewer than 10.5 corners were called; this tactically shows both teams avoid set pieces from wide areas.

With both teams having major flaws that can be exposed, this looks set to be a closely contested match. Added to their defensive woes, the home form of Chicago Fire makes any prediction of a clean sheet hard to make, while Toronto's inconsistency on their travels and recent lack of an offensive threat also suggest they'll struggle to dominate.

Considering recent form, tactical approaches, and their head-to-head history, this one has the feeling of a point apiece for both teams. Both sides will have their chances, but finishing will be a problem. Considering how Chicago has conceded early, Toronto may strike first, but the second half could be all Chicago as it was in the reverse fixture.

• Under 3 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Draw FT @ 3.70 Odds
• Correct Score 1:1 @ 7.50 Odds