Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union Prediction: The home advantage is huge

The match at hand between Orlando City and Philadelphia Union is a competitive fight between two of the biggest names in the Eastern Conference this season. Orlando City sits in 4th spot with 13W-7D-11L so far this season. In good form, Orlando has won four out of five matches, which also included a stunning win on the road against Dallas 3-1. Conversely, Philadelphia Union are 9th with a precarious hold on a playoff berth with 9 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses. They have been somewhat inconsistent this season; they are unbeaten in their last three matches, showing resilience-most recently drawing at home 1-1 against Atlanta.

Orlando has made themselves a force at home, while Philadelphia's struggles away from home make this a very pivotal game for either side. The head-to-head history slightly favors Philadelphia; however, given recent performances by Orlando, the match is bound to be closely contested.

Orlando come into this match off the back of a wave of confidence: four victories in their last five games, high-scoring matches with over 2.5 goals being scored in five of their last six matches. Mostly they get disciplined by opening matches and setting the pace. Big chance creation and a solid home form should give them the edge in this encounter, coming up against a Philadelphia side that can often struggle defensively on their travels.

Orlando City's success this season has been pegged on effective usage of the 4-2-3-1 formation. The shape offers them a great way to gain possession and create chances through wide areas and through the central attacking midfield. The balance in their approach tends to sometimes be quick transitions, and at times, they show patience with the buildup depending on the opponent. Indeed, in the win against Dallas, that attacking potency shone as the team created three big chances and held 55% possession.

They have been relatively solid defensively, particularly when defending tackles, which they have won 71% of in their last outing. They continue to give away opportunities, but often Orlando controls the flow of matches by scoring first, as was seen in four of their last five matches. That is helped with a disciplined two-man pivot able to control midfield battles for defensive stability and supports attacking transitions.

Philadelphia Union may have not lost a game in three weeks, but they have been pretty inconsistent this season. Nevertheless, an attack that is not sharp was what was seen in their draw against Atlanta when they could manage only one clear opportunity. On the road, they concede more often, and with Orlando's recent form, Philadelphia's defense could be really under pressure. It is doubtful whether their approach to the long-ball strategy will be quite so effective against a team like Orlando, which has been great at controlling duels and winning defensive tackles.

Philadelphia uses a 4-3-1-2 formation, and given that, the emphasis falls on compact defensive play and a midfield-heavy approach. They depend on winning physical duels and on using long balls to bypass the opposition pressure, something which was evident in their 57% long ball success rate against Atlanta. The Union's formation is one that enforces verticality and tries to exploit the spaces behind the opposition's defensive line. This 4-3-1-2 also relies on central overloads, with the attacking midfielder operating behind two forwards, trying to break down defenses.

Although Philadelphia can be potent offensively, they have a very hard time turning possession into clear-cut chances. Against Atlanta, the team created only one big chance in the 1-1 result. Defensively, they do remain organized; still, they give up goals in most games if put under pressure constantly, as shown with their recent record of having conceded four goals over the last three games. On the road, this defense starts to become more fragile, with containing a team like Orlando becoming an increasingly difficult task.

These have historically been evenly matched teams, with Philadelphia edging the overall head-to-head with 8 wins to Orlando's 7, alongside 5 draws. In recent times, particularly high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals in seven of the last eight and both teams finding the net in nine out of ten. Orlando won the most recent encounter 3-2 in May 2024, away from home, which will add to their confidence going into this home fixture.

Given recent form and Orlando's home advantage, Philadelphia's winless struggles on their travels make Orlando the favorite to seal a victory. But it is expected that Orlando will need to raise its form to seal another win. They have been quite prolific in front of goal and strong in defense, while Philadelphia's inconsistent away form might be joined by the vulnerability in his defense, which could prove costly.

Given that nine of the last ten head-to-head meetings between these two teams have seen over 2.5 goals scored and both teams scoring, there's a good chance of that happening again. While Philadelphia has its problems at the back, the team does manage to put up a fight in attack, while Orlando's attacking unit is in decent form.

There are expected to be goals in this game, but not overwhelming in number. Both teams are expected to score, with Orlando's defensive solidity capable of limiting Philadelphia's output to a reasonable number; hence, between 2-4 total goals is likely.

• Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.6 Odds
• Home Win @ 1.69 Odds
• Correct Score 3-1 @ 12.00 Odds