Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento Prediction: The hitter and the grappler meets in the ring

The fight between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento is the headline of the UFC Fight Night on the 11th of May in St. Louis, Missouri. This Ultimate Fighting Championship fight is for the heavyweight title. This fight will be live-streaming via ESPN for MMA fans. This fight will be held in the early hours of Sunday at Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri, US. It’s “The Black Beast” versus “Jogi Bear” at the main event at UFC St. Louis. Lewis and Nascimento are both 6’3, weighing over 260 pounds. However, there’s one major difference between the two. While Derrick Lewis is one of the scariest hitters in the UFC Heavyweight Division, Rodrigo Nascimento likes grappling to finish his opponents. 

Derrick Lewis has fought 39 fights in his professional career, recording 27 wins and 12 losses. Out of his 27 wins, he has 22 knockout victories, 4 decision wins, and 1 submission win. He has also recorded 7 knockout losses, 3 decision losses, and 2 submissions. Lewis began his professional career in 2010 when he fought four times, winning against Nick Mitchell, Ryan Martinez, and Rakim Cleveland through knockout, while he lost through knockout against Shawn Jordan that same year. The following year, in 2011, he fought three times, losing his first fight in 2011 against Tony Johnson Jr. in the heavyweight division. His two other fights in 2011 were knockout victories against Jay Peche and Rakim Cleveland. From 2011 to 2014, he kept seven winning streaks all through knockouts until his last fight in 2014, where he lost to Matt Mitrione in the heavyweight championship. His first game in 2015 was a victory against Ruan Potts through a knockout in Round 2, while his second game was a knockout defeat against Shawn Jordan. His last game in 2015 was a knockout win against Viktor Pešta in Round 3. With this win, he kept a six-win streak (5 KOS) until the 10th of June, 2017, when he lost to Mark Hunt in the UFC Fight Night heavyweight division. Out of his 4 fights in 2018, he won against Marcin Tybura, Francis NGannou, and Alexander Volkov, while losing his last fight in 2018 to Daniel Cormier. He lost one against Junior Dos Santos and won against Blagoy Ivanov in 2019. He won all his two games in 2020: Ilir Latifi via unanimous decision and Aleksei Oleinik by knockout in Round 2. From 2021 to 2023, he had more losses than wins, winning against Curtis Blaydes, Chris Daukaus, and Marcos Rogério de Lima, all through knockout, while losing against Ciryl Gane, Tai Tuivasa, Sergei Pavlovich, Sergei Spivac, and Jailton Almeida. Having lost his last fight in 2023 against Jailton Almeida in the heavyweight division, he looks forward to winning his first fight in 2024 against Rodrigo Nascimento on the 11th of May. 

Rodrigo Nascimento has yet to be tested against the top 10 heavyweights since the beginning of his career. Nascimento has a professional MMA record of 11 wins and 1 loss. Of his 11 wins, there are six submissions, three decision wins, and two knockout victories. His only loss was a knockout against Chris Daukaus on October 10, 2020. His first professional fight was a knockout win against Cicero Augusto. Since then, he has kept an eight-win streak until he lost against Chris Daukaus in a heavyweight preliminary card, also through knockout in Round 1. Out of the eight wins, he only beat Ricardo Jordano by knockout in Round 1. Other six submission wins include his fights against Raphael Caixeta, Fabricio Nascimento, Everton dos Anjos, Michal Martinek, Don’Tale Mayes, and Fabio Moreira since his loss against Daukaus in October 2020. His last three professional fights were decision wins against Tanner Boser, Ilir Latifi, and Don’Tale Mayes in the heavyweight division.

Derrick Lewis is to host Rodrigo Nascimento in this UFC game; this will probably make him more determined to win the fight. Although Nascimento has a higher winning percentage than Lewis, he has more experience and a higher number of fights than Nascimento, given that Lewis has fought 39 professional MMA fights. In contrast, Nascimento has only fought 12 times, not even up to Lewis’ number of wins alone. Although Nascimento has fought and won number 38 MMA heavyweight ranking Ilir Latifi and number 25 heavyweight Don’Tale Mayes, he has not been tested by any world heavyweight of the top 20; now he is facing Lewis, number 10 world heavyweight fighter who has also fought and won fighters of the top 15 ranking like number 13 Marcos Rogério de Lima, number 5 Alexander Volkov, and even number 2 Curtis Blaydes. With the above, I will say Lewis will win the fight. Moreover, Lewis has recorded 22 knockout victories out of 27 total wins, while Nascimento only has one knockout, and the majority of his wins have been submission wins. According to stats, Lewis will not lose on submission to someone of lesser record level but will surely win such an individual through knockout.