Sergey Spivak vs Tom Aspinall: Spivak to win on experience

On the night of September 4 to 5, another UFC Fight Night will take place in New York. Sergey Spivak from Moldova will meet Tom Aspinall from Great Britain.

First of all, Spivak has a very good striking technique and speed for a heavyweight. Very good anthropometric data: tall and with no excess body fat, he’s highly mobile. Also, as his last fights showed very well, he is a great fighter, doing great throws and ground fighting, which is not really typical of MMA, but Sergei has a knack for it due to his leverage (back kicks, underhands, hip throws, etc.).

And the greatest disadvantage of his is that Spivak is very unstable, emotionally and psychologically. He can handle some real top-notch fighters, but there can be problems with others.

He could beat Aleksei Oleinik, as the latter has not very good wrestling technique, and Spivak turned out better than him in this aspect.

To summarize, Sergey is a very decent heavyweight. He may lack physical strength and power to put pressure on his opponent in some ways, but technical and functional training is at a good level, and it is clear that his skills are getting better from fight to fight. He’s learning from his mistakes, you can tell.

But again, it comes back to preparing psychologically. If you remember his last fight with Oleinik, there were some strange things. At first they did not want to take the fight, and during the fight there may have been some shyness or doubt. Oleinik was still inferior to Spivak in a fight.

And if not going into detail, Spivak is in general a good puncher who shows a decent, a bit non-standard fight.

The 26-year-old from Moldova has 13 wins (5 by knockout, 6 by submission) and 2 losses (one by TKO, one by decision) in his pro record.

Aspinall is very similar to Spivak in his style. He also does well in ground fighting, and is a real top for his size. He can blow up for a very long time, he doesn't slip down functionally, he has very decent wrestling skills, and he showed it in his fight with Arlovski. He has impressive takedowns, and chokeholds are quite great too.

However, he’s not as experienced as Spivak even, having had fewer fights and less stronger opponents.

The 28-year-old Englishman has 10 wins (7 by knockout, 3 by submission) and 2 losses (by submission and suspension for an illegal move) in his pro record.

Spivak and Aspinall are very similar in style. The decisive factor is going to be functional. Who’s in better form, who’s hardier - that person wins. Being ready mentally will also have a huge impact. I've noticed that Aspinall is a very confident fighter, very sure of himself, good in the cage, going forward, pushing, quite a cheeky fighter (in a good way), tough, always trying to put his opponent to the test and all that may give him an advantage against Spivak.

But I still think that Sergei will win because of his experience. I don't expect the fight to finish early, it’s very likely to end by decision.