The current ATP World No.1, Jannik Sinner, faces off against surging Jack Draper, currently world No. 25, in what promises to be an intense, high-stakes semifinal at the US Open 2024. Both enter this match in remarkable form, as this is a battle between Sinner's consistency and power against the momentum-driven game of Draper.
Jannik Sinner (ATP #1)
Sinner has been dominant en route to the semifinals, beating names such as Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals 3-1. Anchoring his game has been his powerful baseline strokes, tactically serving and excellent movement on the hardcourt. Still, a few frailties were shown in his Medvedev match, where his first serve percentage dropped to 53% and made him vulnerable during return games. His unforced error count was on the higher side, considering 38, which could be something Draper looks to exploit. On a win streak of 10 matches, Sinner has been ruthless in his quest for the US Open crown, dropping just a few sets en route to the semis.
Sinner will be looking to dominate from the baseline, pushing Draper behind. He has to make sure that he does not make many unforced errors, especially if it is a rally where Draper would want to make longer.
The service statistics of Sinner against Medvedev were a concern, and any slip in efficiency could afford Draper his break opportunities. Both players have shown excellent break-point conversion in their quarterfinal matches. Draper converted 6/9 break points in his last match, whereas Sinner converted 5/8. The victor in this match will more than likely be decided by who wins the important points at critical stages.
Jack Draper (ATP #25)
Draper, on the other hand, is in top form. He has won 5 matches in a row and has taken 15 successive sets. He last beat Alex de Minaur in straight sets 6-3, 7-5, 6-2. The game of Draper centers around his mighty serve, as was witnessed by the 11 aces he hit against de Minaur besides converting the break points remarkably well - he took 6/9 in that match. The powerful groundstrokes and aggressive returning by Draper have presented a challenge to his opponents. Perhaps most indicative of anything, his consistency was demonstrated with a total of 19 unforced errors against de Minaur. Draper has been serving well, something that will, no doubt, be one of the weapons to be used in the next match against Sinner, who indeed will face his challenges against this aggressive left-handed Brit.
The fact that Draper is consistent with his returns, in addition to his agility, will present a problem for Sinner, especially in those moments when the Italian is not able to maintain such a high percentage of first serves.
Draper's serve has clicked all tournament so far. The powerful left-handed serve of Draper could unsettle Sinner, especially if he can find the angles on the ad side. On the other hand, the service statistics of Sinner were a bit concerning against Medvedev, and any slip in efficiency could present break opportunities for Draper.
Both the opponents have done really well in converting breakpoints in their quarterfinal matches. If Draper converted 6/9 breakpoints in his last match, Sinner converted 5/8. Most probably, this match will be decided by pulling off critical points at crucial stages.
Expert Betting Tips
Given Draper's form of late and considering the head-to-head between the two players did come out in his favor when the pair last met in 2021, this may be a closer affair than many people think. The strong serve and incessant groundstrokes of Draper may well prove to test Sinner, but all things being equal in skill set and current status- world No. 1, it would seem Sinner has the most experience.
While Draper has formidable momentum, Sinner's consistency, movement, and tactical acumen on hard courts would help him pull through. At the same time, Draper's low ranking can be misinforming considering his current form, though Sinner has the tools to neutralize Draper's strengths.
With his aggressive style, Draper will most probably steal a set, but Sinner will manage to seal the deal in four sets due to better experience in these high-pressure situations.
This match should see many games, especially if Draper is able to steal a set, as both guys are in good form and Draper can hold regularly.
- Over 32.5 Games @ 1.61 Odds
- Over 35.5 Games @ 1.85 Odds
- Jannik Sinner Win 3-1 3.25 Odds