In the Round of 16, Andrey Rublev- No. 9 of the world, faces Lorenz Sonego, the No. 51 in an ATP 250 match in Metz on November 5, 2024. Both come into this tie with contrasting performances as Rublev lost closely to Francisco Cerundolo in Paris while Sonego won in straight sets against Gregoire Barrere. It is now at 2-2 between them, with Sonego winning his last encounter against Rune in an energy-sapping five-setter at the French Open, and this has all the makings of an enthralling clash of styles and levels.
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This is the battle between the aggressive baseline play of Rublev against the much more balanced approach and adaptability from Sonego. Rublev will try to unleash some of his trademark power, especially off of his forehand, though Sonego's tactical versatility and solid serve may be an important key. Indoors on a court where Rublev has done well, a quicker court surface may favor his fast-paced game, but Sonego's recent form and consistency could make him awkward to overcome, especially if there's any kind of hangover from that Paris performance.
They are deadlocked at 2-2 in their head-to-head ATP matches, but the most recent one was indeed at the 2023 French Open. Sonego came back from two sets down to win in five, which showed some kind of resilience and strategic depth. That fact could give Sonego some confidence and perhaps the belief that he can take some real punishment from Rublev's power and break his game with well-timed variation. On the other hand, Rublev might look to revenge himself, especially on an indoor hard court that really fits his game.
Tactical Approach
Rublev thrives off short exchanges, always seeking to dominate the rally with his powerful forehand from the back. In his last match, he was struggling on first-serve return points where he converted just 33%. His serve did click, coming out with 64% first-serve success and saving 100% of break points approached, but Cerundolo was a bit better at the tight moments. Discussion Rublev will need to raise his first-serve percentage and keep deep enough returns to prevent Sonego from stepping in.
Sonego’s game is all about the variety and precision. Sonego took a first-serve success at an astonishing 74% for this one, and made 42% of the first-serve return points against Barrere. He's going to bother Rublev a lot if he's serving this accurately. That means 7 aces and no double faults; thus, Sonego would try to push Rublev from one side to another and grab him when he misses from Rublev's second serve, and sometimes a sliced backhand forces him out of position.
Expert Betting Tips
With the indoor conditions of Metz favoring his explosive power, it has to be said that Rublev is in the driver's seat. If he puts on a good performance, dictating the rallies with his forehand and showing consistency on his first serve, then it may well be another straight-sets win for Rublev.
With Rublev's potential to boss things from the back of a fast court, this match could be over in a hurry if he is in control of the baseline. The less chance Sonego has to work his magic and extend rallies, the greater the chances of an under-23.5 games result.
As Rublev will most likely start most of the matches as the aggressor, setting the tone, he is a good favorite for taking the first set. If he serves well, he should be in a position where he could break Sonego early in the match and take command.
- Under 22.5 Games @ 1.88 Odds
- Andrey Rublev Wins Match @ 1.22 Odds
- Andrey Rublev Wins 2-0 @ 1.83 Odds
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