This is the quarterfinal matchup at the ATP 1000 Paris Masters: Grigor Dimitrov coming in ranked ninth in the world against Karen Khachanov, ranked 21st, in a great matchup of skills, form, and wills. Dimitrov aims to keep his perfect record against Khachanov, while the Russian tries to finally break through in their head-to-head series. Coming into this match, both players are on waves of recent form, and Dimitrov's versatile shot-making game pits him against Khachanov's powerful game in what should be a really intriguing match.
Dimitrov also comes into this leading their head-to-heads 4-0, including a three-set win earlier this year in the Marseille semifinals, where he barely survived Khachanov, 7-6, 4-6, 7-6. That intact record underlines how potent Dimitrov is against this game type of Khachanov, and for Khachanov to break this trend, he will have to raise his level of play.
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Dimitrov enters this match in good form, having posted a 7-3 mark over his last 10 and outlasting the hard-hitting Arthur Rinderknech in a three-set affair. Khachanov is in stronger form, having taken nine of his last 10, the most recent in dominant fashion over Alexei Popyrin in straight sets. The finesse and defensive toolkit of Dimitrov stand in contrast to Khachanov's powerful baseline game, meaning this could be an interesting tactical matchup on the Parisian hard court.
Tactical Approach
Considering Dimitrov is known for his one-handed backhand and all-court game, he will most likely change the spins and angles of the ball to disrupt Khachanov's rhythm. He can sustain pressure on serve, given his first-serve win rate of 92% and second-serve win rate of 64% from his last match against Rinderknech. Aggression will be key, especially on return games, where his conversion rate on break points is still a part of his game that needs significant improvement.
Khachanov is a powerful groundstroke player, enhanced by a strong first serve of 78% in the previous round. Khachanov will try to dominate many of the long baseline rallies and then take advantage of Dimitrov's lower second-serve return percentage. Khachanov has been in fine form recently while saving break points - at 60% - and capitalizing on second-serve return points at 60%. This makes life very difficult on Dimitrov if Khachanov can regularly force him behind the baseline.
Expert Betting Tips
Dimitrov's past success against Khachanov and recent resilience on hard courts give him an edge in this matchup. His capability to change direction during a rally and exploit the angles could prove a bit challenging for Khachanov's baseline-heavy approach.
Given how tight their head-to-head is, and particularly how three sets have been common lately, the expectation is that this quarterfinal will go the full distance. The heavy serving and baseline power from both could easily make games go to tie-break scenarios.
But given that Dimitrov has flexible tactics and is much stronger when it comes to first serve, it is probable that he can have an early lead. If he can dominate the first set, then immediately, he can make things difficult for Khachanov and further into the head-to-head advantage in psychological terms
- Grigor Dimitrov Wins @ 1.686 Odds
- Grigor Dimitrov Wins First Set @ 1.67 Odds
- Grigor Dimitrov Wins 2-0 @ 2.75 Odds
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